As I mentioned earlier, this works best if you can find bets that have a high value that you can capitalise on. If, as fully expected, West Ham take the lead in the first half, then you can simply cash out for a profit. Another option is to hedge your bet by backing the draw. After the first goal for the favourites goes in, the odds at bookies for the draw will rise.
Backing these new odds with an amount that will cover your liability will result in a guaranteed profit. This is a form of arbitrage betting. Of course, nothing is guaranteed. The backed bet cannot be successfully made in the example above to guarantee profit without a goal being scored, since the odds for the draw would shrink, rather than rise.
Value betting is a key overall approach to wagering on the sport and value bets should be a key weapon in your arsenal. Of course, any bet can lose and value betting is no different. Value bets also require great knowledge and experience around assessing the probabilities of outcomes, how to spot value and how to apply value accurately. What is does offer however, is a key approach to long-term profitability. Either way, sound knowledge of the game and the accompanying statistics are required if you want this to be a successful football betting system for you.
What exactly constitutes a value bet varies from punter to punter. This is because a value bet is essentially a bet that you think has a higher probability of winning than a bookie has given it credit for. The graphic below lays out in full the formula to apply to work out whether your bet truly offers value. The key to knowing when a bet truly offers value or not is by applying the below formula.
If the answer is greater than 1. Taking the original odds and our applied odds, we can form the equation:. As you can see, with our odds applied the calculation comes out too greater than 1. If your instincts for spotting value are accurate then this is as good a football betting system as any for the long-term.
Along with introducing a host of new bet types , live betting has enabled new forms of football strategies to emerge. In-play betting allows a completely new way to think about betting on football. If you need a refresher, head to our guide on in-play betting which lays out everything you need to know.
Rather, in-play betting is based on astute observations and spotting and capitalising on opportunities. All successful in-play bettors have a few key approaches that are based on attention to detail and a few key notions.
In-play betting experts will take advantage of the live streams to watch as many games as possible that they are betting on in-play. Knowing what is happening in a match and then betting accordingly is probably the greatest advantage live betting has over pre-match betting. But, remember football is a game of two halves. Experienced live betting punters will know this.
But in-play betting offers a way to exploit these occurrences in a game. If a team is pressuring heavily and looking like scoring, then you can utilise certain bet types to take advantage of this. Minute markets are one example. You could, for example, bet on a goal to be scored in the next 10 minutes, if a team is looking like scoring, but you know that team is likely to relieve the pressure in the second half, or is unlikely to go on to win the match.
Minute markets are available for things like goals, cards, corners and many more things, so watch the game closely and you can profit from using these bet types. The most used and well known in-play strategy is to utilise the cash out function.
Any online betting site worth its salt will have a cash out function now, which can be used on any in-play fixture and most bet types. We touched on using the cash out feature earlier, which can be used to close a bet early and walk away with the profit. Of course, the profit is based on different factors, like the time remaining and the odds of other events occurring which would cause the bet to lose. Many punters like to use the function to minimise risk and walk away with smaller profits.
For example, one approach is to use your research to find games where teams usually score or concede early or in the first half and to bet on over 1. Most betting sites have partial cash outs now too. Utilising the partial cash out, in this instance you could cash out the profit, while leaving the rest of the bet to play.
Again, this is a way of minimising risk. However, almost all the best football betting sites offer some kind of welcome bonus and you can still make them work to your advantage. Simply signing up and depositing at a bookmaker is usually enough to get the welcome bonus. In the past, many punters would have accounts at all the top betting sites, simply to get their hands on the welcome bonuses.
Some bookmakers, like NetBet , offer a standard funds type bonus. Sounds simple? Unfortunately, most bookies insist that you roll-over the funds at least 3 times. I think Kilmarnock will fail to win with Smarkets at 2. The only other thing to consider is that most free bets require you to place a qualifying bet. Follow the same back and lay process as above and you will make a very minimal loss — usually pence — which will be more than covered in the second bet. Why would a bookie do that?
Price boosts, however, are intended to pull in new money and are only on handpicked events meaning the industry will remain in a healthy position. This example explains how it is done:. In the opening Premier League fixtures, Everton travel to face Tottenham with a current price of 4. You can lay against an Everton win i.
Spurs to win or draw with the Betfair Exchange at 4. At number one on our list of the best football betting strategies is the Kelly Criterion method. Thankfully, you can follow the same steps for football betting. Based on the combination of actual probability and odds on offer the Kelly Criterion method will tell you how much of your bankroll to stake. The bigger the variation between the probability and the odds, the more you will stake. Remember, with this strategy you are only betting where positive value exists.
If your overlay comes back as a negative then leave the bet well alone! Your email address will not be published. Pundit Feed. Top Offer. Tags SEO - Football. You may also like. About the author. View All Posts. Add Comment. Click here to post a comment. Cancel reply Your email address will not be published. Accumulator Betting Explained. Comment Share This!
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Mathematician John Kelly Jr. Bet your entire balance on each bet. The advantage is that if you win, you win big. The Martingale system has you double your bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus a profit equal to the original bet. Since a gambler with unlimited bankroll will, almost surely, eventually win, the Martingale betting strategy is seen as a sure thing by some.
Of course, no one has an unlimited bankroll, and the exponential growth of the bets in order to cover losses will eventually bankrupt gamblers who use this system. This system requires you bet a fixed amount for each bet. It also means any chance of winning will also be slow and steady.
With this strategy, you bet a fraction of your balance in proportion to your edge. In this case, we used the Kelly equation for proportional betting. Here your bet would be your edge divided by the odds. For those who get headaches from formulas such as the above, the stake, put simply, is the difference between the probability of winning and losing as determined by you.
Just like any system the Kelly Criterion has its drawbacks, and these are quite pronounced in football betting. Firstly, using the example above, it often asks you to invest a significant amount of your bankroll on a bet. Here, we look at the betting systems that are not sensible or profitable long-term investments of time or money. The Martingale Method basically entails a bettor doubling their stake immediately following any losing even-money bet, thereby allowing the first win to recover all previous losses.
Anyone who has invested time and money in sports betting understands that no matter how sound your research and analysis has been, a series of losing bets by account of bad luck is entirely possible. The reality is a lot different. Stay clear of the of the Martingale Method when wagering on football — the only way it would ever work is if you had infinite amounts of money.
This is impossible of course. Among the three possible outcomes to football matches — win, loss or draw — one often gets overlooked, the draw. The Fibonacci Method is based on a mathematical sequence where each new number equals the total of the previous two. As with the Martingale Method, Fibonacci thinking relies on continually increasing your stake to cover your previous losses.
It can. But the mathematical principle behind the Fibonacci approach is a lot more measured than simply doubling your stake each time. With some statistical analysis as your back-up, this is certainly a method that would be worth testing the success of over time. Sign up for our free matched betting course via this link.
Other than that, a betting system based on proven mathematical principles is a good starting point.
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