Is the Wembley stage strong enough to support that many stools? Well, Westlife is a good start to hinder his chances, but I expect even more. At the time Janet was still there, consider myself lucky not to have let my liking of her not influence my betting as she had not delivered which eventually made it easy for them to seal her fate. I am sitting on Little Mix and The Good Ship both nice bets for the win and the forecast either way thanks in no small way to all on here.
My heart says Marcus for the Sofabet party and to the people on here who have campaigned Marcus all the way through a nightmare series really. Pretty brave girl in fairness but still come on the Good Ship! I think you did very well considering and to predict Marcus to win was a great move that may yet come off. Still looking forward to this final preview — when is it going up? Also do you know when the duets are announced? As usual, that will be biggest influence producers can have on who wins, as running order is nearly but not quite redundant now.
Well Misha and Craig are no longer soloing in the ad and we now have just Marcus, Amelia and Little Mix singing the solos. I am of the believe that the ad will finish with the winner singing the whole solo. I also believe that the ordering in which they sing has been carefully controlled so acts that the producers thought would not make the final were shown in the solo singing closing slot before their anticipated departure. With Misha gone and her solo singing the closing slot completed.
Amelia has just seen her singing last position change. Little Mix are now singing at the end in her place. Misha, Little Mix and Amelia out of the final 4 have all had their turn, will Marcus really now not get his???? Legally the tv producers should have no influence on the advert. Is it James Michael? It was obviously all done in one shoot and whilst it would have been wise to record each act doing the entire song through, I feel the shoot spent a lot more time on some than others.
So, who has actually done best overall then? The score below for each poster is the average error in each position prediction they have made, up to the semi-final. A lower score is better…. So Noisy did best overall, the Sofabet team and Jack have done equally well so far, though they will be separated when the order of the top three is revealed. Unfortunately tfpkar and Dug both did worse than chance — a random order would be expected to get a score of 4. I thought my awful prediction had been consigned to history, but no, here I am exposed as worse than a random guess!
Not backing a loser. Breaking News! I think this means it is quite likely Little Mix and Marcus will make the final two. According to the Mirror it is confirmed and will be confirmed in the press conference tomorrow. What a fantastic song!! Come on the good ship!
The X Factor website update also have this information down as roumer which means it aint going to happen. My only regret. Many screaming kids and no doubt in the final they will be fishing from the same pool except AMELIA will also have a rod and line in the day centre where the old folk love her. The results will be very interesting but I stand by my assertion that LM will not win because they do not appeal to the older folk who are the kingmakers in this show.
That theory makes no sense though, when their are older people who are voting for little mix, there fanbase is not just young teens, there appeal is much more broader then you are giving them credit for. Im from California, but i am friends with a few older people from the UK that vote for little mix every week, and they are far from teenagers.
Im not saying they will win, imm hoping they do though, but im just saying there fanbase is alot more broader then u may think, a reporter who was at there homecoming in South shields mention also how broad there fanbase is. I have my winter ear muffs at the ready and will be gritting my new teeth. The good ship is still the value. The one thing that stays the same with the x factor is the voters. The voters like a nice, smiley, unthreatening boy. Do they know? I strongly disagree with Jake this this spells curtains for Amelia.
Kelly may not be Beyonce and her appearance at the weekend might have been a bit embarrassing what was that Misha B style intro? On the subject of top 16, I do not deserve any credit whatsoever because my offering was shifted around massively to copy yours with some alterations. My original guess had Amelia in second place but Craig, embarrassingly, in first. N-DUBZ are not exactly the first thing also my Christmas list either and Tulisa may not be the best singer around, though she does look hot I did click your vid link.
We have to accept though that this is not a singing competition for the judges Lord knows what LOUIS would have done, lol and it will not hail or fail on their personal duet performance alone. If it did influence though, consider this. Not to be sniffed at and it will do LM voting no harm at all.
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X Factor Our Prediction Revisited. December 7th, 60 comments Category: X Factor. Simon "le middle aged chat". Pete D. Lux Lisbon. Richard Betsfactor. December 8, at am. Simon "le chat". Latest Comments. Recent Posts. In Memoriam: Daniel Gould December 19th, Dalton Harris wins X Factor December 2nd, Eurovision - sites we like. The X Factor - sites we like.
TV betting - sites we like. Follow sofabet. X Factor Our Prediction Revisited Posted by Daniel It seems a long time ago that we made our ridiculously speculative initial prediction and invited commenters to do the same. What can we punters learn from the three finalsits then? I reckon the following 1. The rest stank like five-day-old fish. PS — Can we do something to get Dermot voted off the next series too? But now, I feel like a mug. I feel so stupid.
I have backed her from day 1 to this day now all my bets are on her. Holy St. Which leaves Little Mux and who? The producers got their act in gear but took a while. Thanks to Sofabet did well on eliminations after initial bets on Jade and Melanie went west.
Then the whole Frankie saga was not good for the show really. Sofabet steadies the betting on win market for sure that is a good thing. A lower score is better… 5th — Dug 5. Unless GB can call in a favour with a megastar. I think not. If Little Mix and Marcus pull it off I think they have the far better song choices. Sail on the Good ship! Not far now! The last time Chris Bellis : Nice to read the more recent memories from people who knew Daniel in person Matt T : With it now being over a year since Daniel's tragic passing I want to say ho Phil : Andrew Thanks for your lovely words in memory of Daniel I knew him q Phil Ellis : hello Bill.
Thanks you for your beautiful posting I know Daniel well. Phil Ellis : Deeply saddened to learn of Daniels passing just yesterday. I knew Daniel X Factor Week 1 Review: Middle-amiss? X Factor Swing when you're losing? X Factor Week 6 Elimination: Young guns in firing line? Hallowe'en Staging X Factor Mmm How scripted is the X Factor? X Factor Is there hope for a Stereo Kick-start? X Factor Curtains for Lola?
Eurovision Will Norway's 'Silent Storm' make some noise? Eurovision How will Sweden do with 'Undo'? Eurovision An Ace weekend? Eurovision Will Romania need a 'Miracle'? X Factor Final: Second Friend? X Factor Will they blow up Miss Dynamix?
Why isn't there more transparency about Eurovision and The Voice voting? Eurovision Is Azerbaijan's 'Hold Me' worth embracing? Eurovision Can 'L'essenziale' continue Italy's good run? Eurovision How strong is Ukraine's 'Gravity'? In series 5, it was bully-gate that changed the game, painting Shilpa as the victim, enabling her to harness the vote.
In series 7, the evening Alex Reid caked himself in fake tan was the game changer. As well as being hysterically funny, it showed him in an endearingly self-deprecating light, and viewers loved him for it. Keep an eye out for clues in those XF off-stage segments. They are usually shoe-horned in there with the subtlety of a sledgehammer.
Panel arguments are regularly used to distract from a performance and encourage viewers to forget to vote. A sympathy edit will get voters behind a contestant — one of the all-time classics was in XF and Kelly and Misha B sharing a heart-felt, tearful moment together recounting their broken childhoods.
In Jahmene enjoyed a 2-month long sympathy edit as the show delved, in trademark exploitative style, into his troubled upbringing, to generate a bigger public vote for the soul warbler. They can just as easily turn voters against a contestant — Sophie Habibis sat in an empty north London pub chatting to her friend about the buzz she was creating, springs to mind here. Syco continues to lead the way in these manipulative, tawdry tactics, one of its newer ones appearing to involve red and black imagery behind the singer, subliminally conjuring thoughts of hell… who knows?
Bang, bang, they memorably shot Sophie down this way in XF , not to mention Johnny Robinson and Craig Colton who also got the red and black treatment before being eliminated. Conversely, when the act they want rid of is not bottom of the public vote, rest assured the voting panel will vote them off and it will not be sent to deadlock.
In XF , Misha B was bottom of the public vote in week 4 but was saved by the judges up against Sophie Habibis in the sing-off. Misha B was bottom of the public vote in week 6 but was saved up against Kitty Brucknell. In week 8 Misha B was bottom of the public vote but was saved up against Janet Devlin. In all these instances Misha B had a lower pv so would have gone on deadlock. Kitty Brucknell was bottom of the public vote in week 3 but Sami Brookes got voted off by the judges.
In week 5 Johnny Robinson had a higher pv compared to Kitty but Johnny R was voted off the show by judges. In XF , this trend was only bucked by the treatment of boyband Union J. All 3 times they were not bottom of the pv, all 3 times they were saved, and all 3 times the judges chose not to send it to deadlock knowing they were safe. The Bounce Effect — Simply summed up, this is a televote trend of a contestant being in the bottom 2, and the following week receiving a voting boost.
This can prove a lucrative elimination laying angle on Betfair. In XF , Frankie was in the bottom 2 in week 2 but escaped the bottom 2 in week 3. In week 3 Kitty was bottom 2 but escaped the bottom 2 in week 4. In week 4 Misha B was bottom 2 but escaped the bottom 2 in week 5. In week 7 Amelia was bottom 2 but escaped the bottom 2 in week 8. A look at the series of Strictly also reveals what a key element in elimination markets the bounce factor can be. In week 3 they were safe. In week 6 they were also bottom 2 but survived so received enough of a bounce to escape elimination.
In week 8 they were safe. In week 9 they were also bottom 2 but survived so received enough of a bounce to escape elimination. In week 10 they were safe. In week 11 they were safe.
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